FIA Market Briefing

Wednesday, October 21, 2026
▼ FIA RATE ENVIRONMENT: UNDER PRESSUREHeadwinds for FIA crediting rates — watch for adjustments
Fed Watch
Fed Funds Rate Target
4.25% – 4.50%
Next FOMC Meeting
May 6–7, 2026
Yield Curve & Rates
4.07%
2-Year Treasury
+0.01 this week
Normal
+103 bps
10Y minus 2Y
5.10%
10-Year Treasury
-0.12 this week

What this means for FIA rates: The 10-year Treasury fell -0.12% this week to 5.10%, compressing insurer bond income. With VIX also elevated at 17.3, option costs are rising at the same time — a double headwind for FIA crediting rates. The yield curve is normal (+103 bps), a healthy sign for insurer long-term portfolio returns.

Key FIA Rate Drivers
10-Year Treasury Yield↓0.12 this week
10-Year Treasury Yield
VIX (Volatility)↑13.23% this week
VIX (Volatility)
What This Means for FIA Cap Rates

Double headwind: the 10-year dropped to 5.10% while VIX surged to 17.3. Thinner bond income plus pricier options means carrier budgets are under real pressure — cap rate cuts are likely if this environment persists.

FIA Rate Outlook

Double pressure on rates. Falling yields reduce insurers' options budgets while rising VIX makes those options more expensive — the worst combination for FIA crediting rates. The 10-year moved from 5.22% to 5.10% over the week, and VIX went from 15.27 to 17.29. The yield curve is positive (103bps spread) — a healthy sign for insurer portfolio returns. Consider locking in current rates where possible. If this trend continues, carriers will likely adjust caps and participation rates downward.

Client Talking Points Today
  • →Market conditions are pressuring FIA rates — if clients have been considering an FIA, now is better than later.
  • →With the S&P down 1.21% this week, this is a strong moment to highlight how FIAs protect against market losses while still offering upside participation.
  • →Index performance is diverging (NASDAQ down 3.01%) — worth discussing which FIA index crediting strategy best fits each client's outlook.
  • →With the 10-year at 5.10%, fixed-rate alternatives look competitive. Be ready to explain how FIA participation in market upside differentiates them from straight fixed annuities.
FIA-Linked Index Performance
S&P 500↓1.21% this week
S&P 500
NASDAQ↓3.01% this week
NASDAQ
Russell 2000↓0.75% this week
Russell 2000
2-Year Treasury↑0.25% this week
2-Year Treasury

Today Financial Agency • Jed Monsen • 801.857.1069

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