FIA Market Briefing

Friday, July 31, 2026
FIA RATE ENVIRONMENT: NEUTRALMixed signals — rates likely holding steady
Fed Watch
Fed Funds Rate Target
4.25% – 4.50%
Next FOMC Meeting
May 6–7, 2026
Yield Curve & Rates
3.67%
2-Year Treasury
-0.13 this week
Normal
+101 bps
10Y minus 2Y
4.68%
10-Year Treasury
-0.02 this week

What this means for FIA rates: The 10-year Treasury held essentially flat at 4.68% this week with volatility contained, so FIA options budgets are unlikely to shift meaningfully in the near term. The yield curve is normal (+101 bps), a healthy sign for insurer long-term portfolio returns. The 2-year fell 0.13% — watch whether the spread continues to widen.

Key FIA Rate Drivers
10-Year Treasury Yield0.02 this week
10-Year Treasury Yield
VIX (Volatility)8.56% this week
VIX (Volatility)
What This Means for FIA Cap Rates

With the 10-year holding at 4.68% and VIX calm at 17.1, option budgets are stable. Expect current FIA cap rates and participation rates to hold near-term.

FIA Rate Outlook

Rates likely holding steady. No major pressure in either direction — yields are flat and options costs are contained. The 10-year moved from 4.70% to 4.68% over the week, and VIX went from 18.70 to 17.10. The yield curve is positive (101bps spread) — a healthy sign for insurer portfolio returns. Status quo environment. Current rate offerings should remain stable in the near term.

Client Talking Points Today
  • Rate environment is stable — a good window to review existing FIA positions and consider reallocation.
  • Equities are flat — a natural moment to discuss how FIAs offer a more predictable path for retirement income vs. direct market exposure.
  • Index performance is diverging (NASDAQ down 2.21%) — worth discussing which FIA index crediting strategy best fits each client's outlook.
  • With the 10-year at 4.68%, fixed-rate alternatives look competitive. Be ready to explain how FIA participation in market upside differentiates them from straight fixed annuities.
FIA-Linked Index Performance
S&P 5000.82% this week
S&P 500
NASDAQ2.21% this week
NASDAQ
Russell 20000.47% this week
Russell 2000
2-Year Treasury3.42% this week
2-Year Treasury

Today Financial Agency • Jed Monsen • 801.857.1069

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