FIA Market Briefing

Thursday, September 10, 2026
FIA RATE ENVIRONMENT: NEUTRALMixed signals — rates likely holding steady
Fed Watch
Fed Funds Rate Target
4.25% – 4.50%
Next FOMC Meeting
May 6–7, 2026
Yield Curve & Rates
3.80%
2-Year Treasury
+0.03 this week
Normal
+108 bps
10Y minus 2Y
4.88%
10-Year Treasury
+0.08 this week

What this means for FIA rates: The 10-year Treasury rose +0.08% this week to 4.88%, widening insurer bond income — but rising volatility (VIX at 17.1) is driving up options costs, so the net effect on cap rates is mixed. The yield curve is normal (+108 bps), a healthy sign for insurer long-term portfolio returns.

Key FIA Rate Drivers
10-Year Treasury Yield0.08 this week
10-Year Treasury Yield
VIX (Volatility)12.76% this week
VIX (Volatility)
What This Means for FIA Cap Rates

The 10-year at 4.88% is helping carrier budgets, but VIX at 17.1 is driving option costs higher. The two forces are offsetting — caps may stay flat rather than improve until volatility settles.

FIA Rate Outlook

Mixed signals for FIA rates. Higher yields are a positive, but rising volatility is driving up options costs, which can offset the benefit. The 10-year moved from 4.80% to 4.88% over the week, and VIX went from 15.20 to 17.14. The yield curve is positive (108bps spread) — a healthy sign for insurer portfolio returns. Watch for rate updates from carriers — some may hold current rates while they wait for volatility to settle.

Client Talking Points Today
  • Volatility is elevated — emphasize the downside protection and guaranteed floor that FIAs provide.
  • Equities are flat — a natural moment to discuss how FIAs offer a more predictable path for retirement income vs. direct market exposure.
  • Index performance is diverging (Russell 2000 down 1.19%) — worth discussing which FIA index crediting strategy best fits each client's outlook.
  • With the 10-year at 4.88%, fixed-rate alternatives look competitive. Be ready to explain how FIA participation in market upside differentiates them from straight fixed annuities.
FIA-Linked Index Performance
S&P 5000.65% this week
S&P 500
NASDAQ0.45% this week
NASDAQ
Russell 20001.19% this week
Russell 2000
2-Year Treasury0.80% this week
2-Year Treasury

Today Financial Agency • Jed Monsen • 801.857.1069

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